Page 25 of Outbreak Protocol
"You included me in your drawing?"
"Felix says you're helping make Mummy better, so you're part of our family now."
The casual way Emma has absorbed me into her conception of family creates an unexpected warmth in my chest. I've spent years maintaining professional distance precisely to avoid these kinds of emotional entanglements, but Emma's matter-of-fact inclusion suggests that distance was more artificial than protective.
"That's very kind of you, Emma. I'm honoured to be in your drawing."
Felix watches this interaction with an expression I can't quite identify—something between affection and amazement, as if he's seeing me discover something about myself.
After Emma returns to her colouring, Felix opens Yuki's latest epidemiological models on his laptop.
"The transmission patterns aren't following standard disease dynamics," he explains, pulling up a complex chart. "Look at the temporal clustering—instead of gradual community spread, we're seeing sudden emergence in geographically separate locations."
I study the data, recognizing patterns that don't match typical infectious disease progression. "Almost like multiple independent introductions rather than spreading from a single source."
"Exactly. And the incubation period varies more than we initially thought. Some patients develop symptoms within 24 hours of exposure, others take up to two weeks."
"Variable incubation suggests either dose-dependent pathogenesis or genetic factors affecting susceptibility."
"Or both. Felix pulls up another chart. "But here's what really concerns me—patients who recover aren't developing lasting immunity. We've had three individuals test positive again after apparent recovery."
The implications hit me immediately. "If survivors can be reinfected, traditional herd immunity models become irrelevant."
"Which means our containment strategy needs complete revision."
I sink into the chair beside Felix, processing how fundamentally this changes our response framework. Every mathematical model we've built assumes recovered patients develop immunity. If that assumption is false, we're not just dealing with a novel pathogen—we're confronting something that violates basic principles of infectious disease dynamics.
"Have you shared this with the military command?"
"Not yet. I wanted your analysis first."
"We need to brief Colonel Santos immediately. These findings could change quarantine protocols."
Felix nods, but his expression remains troubled. "Erik, what if standard containment measures aren't sufficient? What if we're facing something that can't be controlled through traditional public health interventions?"
The question I've been avoiding confronting directly. My entire career has been built on the premise that epidemiological analysis can predict and control disease outbreaks. But Felix'sclinical observations, combined with Yuki's modelling irregularities, suggest we might be encountering something unprecedented.
"Then we adapt our methods to match the pathogen's characteristics," I say, though uncertainty creeps into my voice.
"And if adaptation isn't enough?"
I don't have an answer that satisfies either of us.
Colonel Santos listens to our briefing with military focus, asking pointed questions about data reliability and requesting additional confirmation studies. Unlike politicians who want reassuring news, she wants accurate intelligence regardless of its implications.
"So you're telling me that quarantine zones might be ineffective if people can be reinfected?"
"Potentially," Felix confirms. "We need more data to understand reinfection mechanisms, but the preliminary evidence suggests immunity doesn't develop consistently."
"What about vaccination development timelines?"
I exchange glances with Felix before answering. "Sarah's viral analysis indicates extreme genetic complexity—multiple species involvement and rapid mutation rates. Traditional vaccine development could take months to years, and effectiveness might be limited if the pathogen continues evolving. Even with the advancements learned in MRNA vaccines from the COVID pandemic, there isn't going to be some overnight breakthrough."
Colonel Santos makes notes on her tablet. "Recommendations?"
"Enhanced surveillance protocols, expanded testing capacity, and preparation for extended containment measures," I reply. "We may need to sustain public health interventions longer than initially projected."
"And the economic impact of extended measures?"
