Page 29 of Spymaster

Harvath picked up his espresso and settled back in his seat. “Like I said, the appropriate agency has been made aware.”

“What does that mean?”

“It means they know.”

Jasinski doubted that’s what it meant, but she let it go and changed the subject. “Why Sweden?” she asked as the jet lifted off. “Technically, they’re not a NATO member.”

“Correct,” he replied. “But they are a NATO ‘affiliate.’ They’re also strategically important. In particular, Gotland is very important. If the Russians want to take and hold the Baltics, they have to control the Baltic Sea. To do that, they need the Swedish island of Gotland. It’s small, which means a large invasion force isn’t necessary. And its position near the middle of the Baltic Sea would allow Russia to prevent any NATO ships from reinforcing Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. If they control Gotland, they control everything.”

“But I thought Sweden was already handling concerns over Russia. Didn’t they bring back conscription?”

“They did. They have even permanently garrisoned several hundred soldiers on the island, but it isn’t nearly enough. Three years ago, thirty-three thousand Russian troops rehearsed an invasion of Sweden. Gotland fell in less than an hour.”

“So if Gotland is so important, why hasn’t more been done about it?” she asked.

“The Swedes have pumped a lot of money into infrastructure,” said Harvath. “But infrastructure isn’t their main problem. Troop strength is. We’ve been working with them, conducting joint training exercises and encouraging them to build up their forces on the island, but they simply don’t have enough soldiers to go around.”

“So what happens if Russia invades?”

“The Swedes think they can move troops in from the mainland.”

“In under an hour? You can’t even mobilize, much less move troops in under an hour.”

“That’s what we’re worried about. There’s a concern the Swedes might not even defend Gotland at all. They might choose to focus their resources on Stockholm and other key areas, in hopes of limiting the invasion and holding out until the United States and other NATO members come to their aid.”

“By which time, control of the Baltic Sea will have already been ceded to the Russians, giving them exactly what they want.”

Harvath nodded solemnly. “Swedish politicians may not think they fully need NATO, but NATO absolutely needs Sweden if it wants to protect the Baltic States. That’s why Russians can’t be allowed to take Gotland.”

“I still don’t understand why Sweden hasn’t joined NATO yet.”

“Russia has made it very clear that if Sweden does, it will be seen as an act of aggression against them.”

“So?”

“So, I think Sweden is spooked. They’re trying to remain neutral, if they can, and thread the needle in order to hopefully have their cake and eat it, too.”

“Sounds like a pretty dangerous gamble to me.”

Harvath nodded again. “Believe me, we agree. If war broke out with Russia, we couldn’t afford to have our forces divided, fighting on both sides of the Baltic.”

“Suppose the Russians did seal off the Baltic, then what?”

“To get to any of the Baltic States, NATO’s ground forces would have to move up through Poland. Normally, most of the equipment would be put on trains. There’s just one problem. Western Europe adheres to a standard gauge. Once you leave Poland and head up into Lithuania, the width of the tracks change. It’s a logistics nightmare.”

“Not to mention the transition points being prime targets for sabotage.”

“Exactly,” replied Harvath. “We’re looking at weeks, possibly even a month, before an effective response to a Russian invasion of the Baltics could be launched.”

“During which time, Lithuanian, Latvian, and Estonian forces would be cut to ribbons. Russian forces would have ample time to fortify their positions, dig in, and prepare for any NATO attack.”

“Along with the additional troops NATO rotates through the Baltic States, as well as the standby force it maintains in Poland.”

“But what about air support?” she asked. “Couldn’t allied aircraft launch from Sweden or Finland?”

“Depends on whether they grant us permission, or whether they play the neutrality card and stay out of it. Finland, as you know, isn’t a member of NATO either. The U.S. has been doing a lot of training with them, weapons sales, and things like that. But until bullets start flying, you never really know what people are going to do.

“What’s more, NATO air superiority isn’t guaranteed. Russian attack fighters and antiaircraft systems could make it very difficult for our pilots.”

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