Page 1 of The Probability of Us

One

AUGUST CURRENT DAY (FRIDAY)

There are plenty of bars in Hartford that are more popular—and much nicer—than The Dizzy Acorn. But ever since we stumbled across this cramped, hole-in-the-wall bar eight years ago, we haven’t gone anywhere else.

From the outside, you wouldn’t know this place was here. The skinny, brick building has windows on either side of a red door that give off townhouse vibes, and there’s only a small sign beside the door with their logo—an acorn, with wisps of air curling around it, as if it was spinning, and the name in small block letters below it. It’s on a quiet street, almost as if it wants to stay hidden, but most of the patrons have been coming here for years, just as we have.

I smile as I open the door and I’m hit with a wave of sound and humidity. It’s a small room, and the décor only makes it feel more haphazard. The brick walls are covered with antique photos and rusty memorabilia that are barely visible in the warm, dim lighting. There are too many tables squeezed into the left two-thirds of the room, and since I made it here later than I’d originally planned, all of the free space between them and the bar on the right side of the room is packed with people waiting for tonight’s entertainment to start.

There’s a small open space at the back of the room that houses karaoke on Monday, trivia on Thursday, and on Friday—like tonight—a local want-to-be DJ. He’s still setting up in the corner, and after catching a quick glimpse, I don’t have high hopes for tonight’s music. Any other night of the week, the space ends up used as a dancefloor that Ali loves dragging us onto.

I make my way through the crowd, pushing past groups of people shouting in order to hear each other, and hoards of people crowding the bar trying to catch the attention of one of the three bartenders who never appear stressed no matter how packed this place gets. One of them notices me in the crowd where I’m currently boxed in by a big group looking for more drinks and shoots me a sympathetic smile before turning to help the next guest. The workers here all know our group by now. If not by name, then because of how loud we can get.

“Excuse me,” I yell, as I finally find space to push through the crowd. But instead of continuing, I freeze. My eyes catch on the small chalkboard hanging beside the bar and I gulp.

The Dizzy Acorn Trivia Ranking

I generally avoid looking at that part of the bar for this very reason—to avoid this very feeling. The top five rankings change frequently—the smeared chalk behind the names makes them harder to read each time they change. But the name in first place is still as clear as ever, and still hurts me even after all this time.

The Summers

I quickly avert my eyes and after a deep breath I keep moving, leaving all thoughts of him behind.

“Analise.” Will sees me first and smiles, then three other faces turn my way, and I can’t help my grin.

“Sorry I’m late,” I say as I plop down in the empty chair, flustered from the throng of people. Ali slides me an ice-cold beer and I shoot her a grateful expression, taking an immediate sip and letting out a sigh that makes everyone chuckle.

“If you’d have just stayed at Triniti with us, you would’ve been on time,” Sterling prods, lifting his hand to flick my slicked-back bun. I came here right from work, so I’m still in a plum pantsuit while everyone else had time to change into casual clothes.

Across the table, Ali and Trent’s eyes go wide and they freeze, waiting for my reaction. Even Will looks hesitant behind Sterling and it makes me feel as pathetic as ever.

Will and Sterling have been together for two years now.

Heleft six years ago.

Will shouldn’t know anything about him or what happened. Saying the name of the company we all met at shouldn’t still trigger me.

So, I place a small smile on my face and pretend it doesn’t.

I ignore their reactions, and instead say, “And I miss you guys every day.”

I met Ali, Sterling, and Trent eight years ago. We were all in the Actuarial Department at Triniti Insurance—it was my first job out of college and Ali invited me out to lunch on my first day with her, Trent, and Sterling. We’ve been friends ever since.

But withhim, it was different.

He became part of our group because of me. He was four years older than me, just beating out Trent as the oldest in our group, but quickly we all became inseparable. After he left, working at Triniti just wasn’t the same. Staring at his desk all day sent me spiraling into a dark place, and everyone agreed leaving was the best thing for me. And since Hartford is the insurance capital of the U.S., it wasn’t hard to find a new actuarial job.

It ended up being for the best since I was introduced to the concept of value-based care at that new job, and without it I’d never have ended up where I am now—Chief Actuary and Vice President of Transcend Consulting. Our firm specializes in the strategy and implementation of value-based care contracts which aim to improve patient outcomes, quality of care, and reduce costs by tying provider payments to the outcome of their patients, instead of just paying for the quantity of visits. I love the work I do—being at the forefront of innovation in the health insurance space makes me feel like I’m making a difference.

“You learn anything new about the company that’s acquiring yours?” Ali asks, and my smile falls into a frown. I finish my beer and shoot Trent a grateful look when he offers to brave the crowd and grab another round for the table. “What’s it called again?”

“Vi . . .” Sterling starts, but his voice trails off. “It definitely starts with a V.”

“Vitality Health,” I grumble.

I was shocked when Clara, the founder and president of Transcend, announced we were being acquired by a health-tech startup looking to center their strategy around value-based care contracts. Considering I manage most of the financial work for the company, and am responsible for strategy, it makes me nervous not having been a part of this deal. Clara is brilliant but has a tendency to make decisions based on emotions and skip over details—that’s my specialty. It’s why we make such a good team.

I met Clara through a friend of a friend in the business. Value-based care was still relatively new to the insurance world, and everyone was trying to figure out how to implement it effectively. When I left Triniti, I ended up in a role that developed the value-based care programs for that company and learned quickly. I believe in the work, and I’m good at it. Coming up with new strategies or how to implement them was something that I could do, and do well, and Clara wanted to ask me a few questions as she considered starting a consulting firm. We worked well together, and I knew that to make a larger impact, we needed to centralize these programs, so I took a job with her, and we started working out the logistics of a primary care model before moving onto other specialties.

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